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29/06/2008  I am fucking shocked by the odds. If I am the bookie I would set the odds with Germany as favourite. Instead I found out that Spain is the Asian Handicap favourite. Germany is steady and reliable, with proven past success. Arguably we would have reckon Germany as the #1 nation among all the European countries in the last 30 or 35 years. They have better success than any European countries in World Cup and European Championship. 

Since 1974, Germany (or West Germany for you young kids out there) has played in four World Cup final (1974, 1982, 1986, 1990) and won two of the four final (1974, 1990). During the same period of time, Germany has played in four European Championship final (1980, 1992 and 1996) and won two of the three finals (1980 and 1996). One may argue that Germany has won nothing in the 21st century which is factually correct. The golden era of German soccer was in the 90's. That is fine. 

Ask the same question about Spain. Spain only success in international soccer was the 1964 European Championship when they won the title at home soil by defeating Soviet Union (old Russia) in the final. 20 years later they did play in the 1984 European Championship final and lost to France. Besides that, they have zero success in international soccer. And I would not even consider this Spain team as their best national team in the last 30 years. 

26/06/2008  No need to think about this one. This match does not require any analysis. After what happened in the four quarter final matches and one semi final match yesterday, would you still dare to pick the upper plate Spain -0.5 Asian Handicaps? In the knock out phase of EURO 2008 so far, lower plate win all 5 matches. You can't take Spain. If Spain win in 90 minutes then be it. Imagine if they can't win in 90 minutes either by purpose or by real, you are going to look damn silly if you bet your money on them. (Post match: motherfucker son of bitches #@%&*!)

25/06/2008  I know Turkey has been playing bad while lucky. I know many of their first team players are either injured or suspended for this Semi Final match up against Germany. At anytime during the semi final of a major tournament if you have match with 1.25 Asian Handicap, I guess you don't want to bet on the upper plate. Imagine you would want to bang your head hard against the TV set if the match ended up in 90 minutes draw, again. (Post match: phew... finally win one after three losses in quarter finals)

22/06/2008  This is the quarter final match that we are really looking forward to since three days ago. This is going to be an awesome match. The reason I think so is because this appears to be a clean match by just looking at the odds. Red hot Spain -0.25 Asian Handicaps against the Italian. When the tournament first started a couple of weeks ago we are doubtful if the Italian really wants to win this thing because they had just won the ultimate soccer Holy Grail being the World Cup two years ago. We thought they may want to just let go of the European Championship. But after seeing the joy on the Italian players' face after they beat France a few days ago to qualify for the Quarter Final you can see they too want this one bad. And then look at the odds. This is going to be an exciting match to watch. We are are excited. So who is a better team? 

Our memory and knowledge about Spain soccer go back 26 years when they host World Cup 1982. They have one of the greatest striker in modern history being Emilio Betragueno. However, they failed to qualify for the second round after they draw against England and lost to West Germany in the first round. However, Spain came back strongly two years later to play against France in the Final of Euro 1984. However, they lost 0-2 to Michel Platini and France. For the next 24 years, Spain has continued to play the greatest underachiever role in the world of soccer. 

1986 World Cup - Spain beat Denmark 5-1 in Round of 16 after displaying one of the greatest offensive play in recent World Cup and then they lost to Belgium in Quarter Final after a penalty shootout. 

1988 Euro -  Failed to qualify for the Quarter Final after losing to Italy and West Germany.

1990 World Cup - Lost to Yugoslavia in the Round of 16 at extra time.

1992 Euro - Failed to qualify for the finals.

1994 World Cup - Lost to Italy in Quarter Final after Roberto Baggio two single handed goals.

1996 Euro - Lost to England in Quarter Final after penalty shoot out.

1998 World Cup - Failed to qualify for the Round of 16 after losing to Nigeria and draw with Paraguay in the group stage.

2000 Euro - Lost to France in Quarter Final.

2002 World Cup - Lost to Korea in a Quarter Final penalty shoot out in the most dirty soccer tournament I have ever seen in my life.

2004 Euro - Failed to qualify for Quarter Final after drawing with Greece and losing to Portugal in the group stage.

2006 World Cup - Lost to France in the Round of 16.

As for Italy, they are our first love of soccer after witnessing their 1982 World Cup triumph. They 26 years of soccer history are as follows:

1986 World Cup - Lost to Argentina in the Round of 16.

1988 Euro -  Lost to Russia in the Semi Final.

1990 World Cup - Lost to Argentina in Semi Final after a penalty shootout.

1992 Euro - Did not fucking qualify for the Finals.

1994 World Cup - Lost to Brazil in the Final after a penalty shootout.

1996 Euro - Failed to qualify for Quarter Final after drawing with Germany and losing to Czech Republic in the group stage.

1998 World Cup - Lost to France in Quarter Final after a penalty shootout.

2000 Euro - Lost to France in the Final after sudden death.

2002 World Cup - Lost to Korea in extra time in the Round of 16 in the most dirty soccer tournament I have ever seen in my life.

2004 Euro - Failed to qualify for Quarter Final after drawing with Sweden and Denmark in the group stage.

2006 World Cup - Going all the way and win the World Cup. 

Take note of this. Italy has never really lost a knock out match in 90 minutes in the last 20 years of World Cup history and European Championship history.

If history tell us something, Italy will prevail in this 2008 quarter final match up against Spain.... BUT WE ARE BETTING ON SPAIN AFTER FINDING OUT THE LUCA TONI AND CASSANO ARE LEAD STRIKERS OF ITALY...... (Post match: After all is said and done, a losing pre-match analysis is a lousy analysis...... Fuck.... Should have known better not to bet against Italy on 90 minutes especially with 0.25 Asian Handicap to bet on Italy. What the fuck were we thinking about. Dumb Ass...)

21/06/2008  There are three MONEY TEAM after the preliminary round - Croatia, Netherlands and Spain. Croatia one fell last night. What is going to Netherlands next? This is an easy pre-match analysis to write but a difficult match to bet. Assuming this is a clean match, I think we would all agree that Netherlands will win in 90 minutes. The last time Russia or USSR has any success in international soccer was 20 years ago when they played Netherlands in the Final of EURO 1988 when Marco Van Basten scored the 180 degree flat line volley. (USSR lost 0-2 in case you are wondering.) You have an all balance and very strong Netherlands squad this time. Russia was lucky to defeat Greece with a Greek goalkeeper's error and a gifted dirty win from Sweden. Netherlands will prevail in 90 minutes. The question is if this is a clean match. Look at the fucking odds. Netherlands -0.75... this is fucked up odds.... But unless absolutely certain, our principle is not to pick on dirty match throughout European Championship. (Post match: The Dutch did not play the Dutch. So we made the wrong decision. This turned up to be a dirty 90 minutes match. It is what it is. Not that we have not been fucked over by hundreds and hundreds of dirty match in our betting career before. Move on to the next day.)

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20/06/2008  Did you watch the three matches played by Turkey against Poturgal, Switzerland and Czech Republic? Can someone please tell me how do you fancy the Turk score a real goal in this tournament? They looked dead to Portugal, they were lucky against Switzerland and Czech Republic played a dirty match for them. Turkey can try to jam their own half with 10 defenders but their defense is so fucked up they can't hold up any team for 90 minutes. Croatia will win in 90 minutes if this is a clean match. Watch the match yourself. (Post match: #@%x&@......%#@&.....@#$!%$#%%#!!!!!  @#$!!!! !#$%^%$#!@$@!#$@!~@#$%^&* )

19/06/2008  We have been betting on soccer since 1982 World Cup.  Almost three decades of experience tells us not to bet against Germany when it matters, if they play clean. You want to bet on a team like Portugal who has no recent history of international success in the world of soccer against the German. Come on... You want to trust a young punk like Ronaldo against the ever efficient, reliable, trustworthy German? (Post match: If every soccer match is clean, we will be a millionaire in a year.....)

18/06/2008  So Portugal put on a reserve team and lost to Switzerland; Croatia put on a reserve team and won against Poland; next come Netherlands with half reserve and defeated Romania. So what is going to happen with Spain reserve. Look at the odds. Spain with reserve team still gives 0.5 or 0.75 Asian Handicap to Greece. We will go with Spain. As for the Sweden vs Russia match, it is too obvious while on the other hand very confusing. Sweden is a much better team than Russia and Sweden can not afford to loss to Russia in order to qualify for the quarter final and yet it is a PK (level) match. This is either a bookie sucker punch or a wrong odds set by bookie.  (Post match: We are right on once again. Sweden played such an obvious dirty match. We knew it all along but did not want to pick on dirty matches for European Championship. Our 24 years (since 1984) of European Championship betting experience tells us not to bet on dirty matches in European Championship because all the long run you will not win. There are more clean matches than dirty matches in European Championship. As for Spain vs Greece, our analysis is as accurate as it can be. Spain reserve team still has to give 0.5 against Greece... come on...)

17/06/2008  Like we said before, you don't want to bet on Italy for the time being after their 2006 World Cup win. If they defeat France and qualifies for the quarter final then be it. You have already won two games betting against them. On the other hand, you think Romania needs to beat Netherlands to qualifies for the quarterfinals, think again. A draw against Netherlands will see Romania through if France and Italy play to another boring draw. Take the lower plate. (Post match: Well so we get fucked by Italy. But that is ok. Like we say, we have won two matches betting against them, it is fine to give one back especially we did get the Netherlands match correct.)

16/06/2008  It will be wishful thinking to think Austria will defeat Germany and qualify for the quarter final. Germany will come through. But I don't think they will cover the 1.5 Asian Handicap. You got to give the host country and its fan a little excitement, a little suspense until the last minute. I feel this is going to be a close match for whatever reason, take the lower plate. (Post match: How do you like us now. Another two wins day. So precise, so sharp, so accurate... that is us... :-) Seriously, it is easy. Portugal already qualifies for quarter final put on a reserve team and lost to Switzerland; and so you thought the same will happen to Croatia. That is how the bookies fuck up your mind and your wallet. Croatia won. As for Germany, it is even easier. Just read our pre match analysis.. Right on, right on.)

15/06/2008  (Post match: Easy picks easy wins, with a little sweat... It is simple, you got to throw a little to the host country Switzerland. Naturally a 2-0 win on its last match against Portugal helps. As for the Turkish late come back, we knew it all along... You have our sympathy if you bet your money on Czech Republic, watch the match live on TV and watch how your money was robbed by a dirty brunch of Czech players... ) 

14/06/2008  Spain is hot. Sweden won their last match too. Who is better? Go with the upper plate. Greece was unlucky not to come away with a point in their last match against Sweden. Russia should be slightly stronger but you got to love the half ball Asian Handicaps if you watch how Greece jammed up with 10 men defense against Sweden. (Post match: Bad Greece loss for us... bad loss. Wanted to triple up previous day winning... all lost in a lousy goalkeeper mistake. Fucking Greek.)

13/06/2008  At this stage, you just don't want your money on Italy. If they win and come back to qualify for the quarter final, then be it. Remember how France fare in 2002 World Cup after winning the 1998 World Cup and 2000 European Championship. On the other hand, you want to continue to bet on Netherlands on Asian Handicaps until they loss. (Post match: As good as it gets.... this is how today turns out. We got it so good against Italy and so precise on Netherlands.... You got to love us at this point.)

12/06/2008 We want to continue to bet with the upper plate on these two matches. Germany should defeat the Croatia (if clean) while Austria is the weakest team in this European Championship. If you think about it, Poland actually played a pretty good match against Germany but they were not able to hold up for 90 minutes. (Post match: Well, motherfuckers want to do a dirty match.. two dirty matches indeed. What you gonna do, what you gonna do. Poland conceded a 92 minute penalty to Austria... there ain't no shit you can do about it)

11/06/2008 Portugal is benefited from red hot Ronaldo and is a half ball favourite in this match up against the Czech Republic. We like Portugal without considering the possibility of a dirty match. On the other hand, home team should finally win one for the crowd. For that matter Switzerland is a 0.25 handicap favourite against Turkey. Don't listen to us on this one because I am going out to watch this match with two Turkish friends and an Isreali friend tomorrow.... so I better bet my money on Turkey. (No you guess wrong, I am not a Jew. My uncle fought in the 1967 Six Day war. you can imagine I have serious reservation against all Jew.) (Post match: Another double win day for us.... Thanks to my Turkish friends inviting me to watch the match with him in the pub.  Otherwise I think I would have bet on Switzerland. But during half time my Turkish friend was cursing just like any hot headed Turk, complaining about the heavy rain, the soggy field, the lousy performance of his countrymen. I was thinking to myself: You dumb ass motherfucking Turk, you loss your national pride, I loss my money because of you asked me to watch the match with you... Well, what do you know.... The Turk scored two goals in the second half....)

10/06/2008 Yesterday lower plate (Romania +0.75 and Netherlands +0.25) won both matches. We still stick with the lower plate today. (Obviously France is playing a dirty match for bookie to recoup some losses from first four matches and when was the last time you saw the Italians play such a disgraceful match.) Spain again should win their first match Russia and Sweden should trash Greece, based on true strength. At this early stage of the tournament, we still want to play the good teams without consideration of dirty matches. (Post match: Great day for us. We hit both matches.... History of European Championship betting tells us that if you want to consistently catch dirty matches in this tournament, you will probably get fucked in the ass. You could probably win a little net profit or even more if you consistently take the handicaps and play against the favourite teams in World Cup, but not European Championship.) 

9/06/2008 France should easily beat Romania and any suspicious of dirty match should be left behind because of the strength of this group. All 4 teams in this group are all very good. Any slip against Romania, being the weaker team of this group could have serious consequences for quarter finals qualification. Therefore, we feel France is too strong for Romania and -0.75 Asian handicaps looks good. 

On the hand, we always love Italy, but it feels good to take the 0.25 Asian handicaps against them in this match up against Netherlands. Think about this. With the strike force that Netherlands has and being a traditional attacking team, you expect Netherlands to score at least one goal in this match against Italy. We feel there is little doubt about that. The question you have to ask is if you feel Italy is capable of scoring two goals in their opening match of EURO 2008. Italy is traditionally a defensive team and in particular a team that takes a long time to get hot in big tournament such as World Cup and European Championship. This is the 6th matches of EURO 2008 and we have not had a draw match yet. How do you fancy the chance of a draw match here. (Post match: Would have been perfect if we figure out the longer awaited Draw match goes to France vs Romania while at the same time we still win on Netherlands +0.25)

08/06/2008 European Championship........Once every 4 years.  The best of soccer that one can get.  Better than Copa America, more exciting than World Cup, more prestigious than Olympics soccer gold medal.

A little bit of history flash back of European Championship:

1976:  Czechoslovakia won the final.  (Can't recall against which country and the scoreline too)

1980:  Germany defeated Belgium 2-1 in the Final

1984:  Michel Plantini led France to defeat Spain 2-0 in the Final

1988:  Van Basten at his best Holland defeated Russia 2-0 in the Final

1992:  Last minute assembled and admitted Denmark (after Yugoslavia was banned from the tournament) defeated Germany 2-0 in the Final which saw the best of Michael and Brian Laudrup brother with Peter Schmeical

1996:  Germany defeated Czech Republic with the first golden goal in FIFA history in the extra time

2000:  France defeated Italy with a last minute regular time equaliser after Del Piero missing 2 clear chances and then France followed up with a golden goal in extra time with the momery of Nesta crying on the field after the match still fresh in everyone's mind

2004:  Greece defied logic to win EURO 2004

 Whether you are a true soccer fan or a football punter, this is better than World Cup in all aspect.

In case you (or in particular us) have forgotten, this is how it came down in EURO 2004 four years ago. 

First two matches of EURO 2008 perhaps could be another indication that it is better to bet on the good teams then trying to catch a dirty match. 

32 matches of EURO 2004 - Upper plate (give handicaps) win 12 matches; Lower plate (take handicaps) win 14 matches; 5 matches draw. You do the maths.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

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